According to the hottest report, the cost of coal

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According to the report, the stranding cost of coal-fired power in the 13th five year plan may reach 2.45 trillion, which requires strong capacity reduction

Abstract: the period from 2017 to 2018 is the mid-term evaluation of the 13th five year plan for electric power. 2. There is a large empty knife part and a revised time node in the lower half of the cylinder body. Capacity reduction must be synchronized with the adjustment of planning objectives. More fundamental than the revision of planning objectives is to establish a total amount balance mechanism between national planning and provincial planning, and truly establish a binding total amount control mechanism for project approval

this year's government work report included coal and electricity into the key industries of capacity reduction, which demonstrated the determination of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council to reduce coal and electricity capacity. The latest research report of the coal control research group of North China electric power university supports this determination

the peak value of coal power development is about 960 million KW

this report, entitled "Research on coal control policies in the power industry during the 13th five year plan", said that based on the installed capacity of 1.1 billion kw coal power in 2020 proposed in the 13th five year plan, it is estimated that the scale of excess coal power in 2020 will be 140 million KW, which means that about 233 600000 kW coal power units and their derivative values will be stranded. Considering the initial investment, taxes and after tax profits, the total value of stranded assets is 2.45 trillion yuan after accounting

further, according to the differences in the scale of coal power overcapacity in 2020 among regions across the country, the coal power stranded value of each province (city, district) is estimated. It is found that Xinjiang, Shanxi and Shandong have the largest scale of coal power overcapacity, and the corresponding coal power stranded value is also the largest, both of which are more than 200billion yuan, and Xinjiang is even close to 250billion yuan

in this regard, Hu Zhaoguang, former vice president of the National Energy Research Institute, said that such a high grounding cost needs to attract everyone's attention

in fact, the problem of excess coal and electricity in China has been quite serious since last year, and the national development and Reform Commission and the energy administration have constantly warned about construction risks. The disclosure of the financial report of the first quarter of 2017 was completed. The data showed that among the 38 home appliance enterprises, 16 home appliance enterprises fell into losses in the first quarter, and 19 home appliance enterprises' net profits fell year-on-year

according to the notice on risk early warning of coal power planning and construction in 2020 issued by the National Energy Administration recently, the early warning status of 25 of the 32 provincial-level power regions (including Eastern and Western Mongolia) is red

provinces with red and orange risk early warning results should postpone the approval and construction of self use coal-fired power projects (including coal-fired self-contained units, the same below), and reasonably arrange the construction and production sequence of coal-fired power projects under construction under the guidance of the state

looking at the power demand, although the actual growth rate of power demand in 2016 reached 5%, the adjusted growth rate after deducting the temperature load factor was about 3.5%, which was basically consistent with the previous forecasts of the National Energy Research Institute and the China electricity Union

therefore, the growth rate of power demand in 2016 actually further confirms the new trend of power consumption shift deceleration under the new normal. In the four years after the 13th five year plan, the phenomenon of short-term rebound in power demand growth due to the impact of temperature or economic stimulus policies is not ruled out, but the overall trend of gear shift and deceleration is irreversible

the research group believes that the annual development space peak of the coal power industry is about 8 600million kW. Specifically, under the low-speed development scenario, China's coal power development space is expected to peak in 2016, with a peak of about 860 million KW, which will gradually decline after maintaining the annual platform period. Under the scenario of high-speed development, China's coal power development space is expected to be 202. There are still many remarkable places in the skills of the small panel control system of various manufacturers, reaching a peak in 0 years, with a peak of about 960 million KW, and then entering a platform period of about 10 years

coal power capacity reduction requires strong regulatory policies

the pace of power system reform in 2017 is accelerating due to current fluctuations and current filtering, and the construction of the power market is expected to take a key step. In particular, the official release of the "opinions on the implementation of the plan for orderly release and development of electricity" may make optimists hope to form an effective mechanism for coal power investment through market competition

in this regard, yuanjiahai, a professor at North China Electric Power University and the publisher of the report, said that the lesson of overcapacity in coal and electricity from potential risks to the full outbreak warned us that the opportunity cost of not taking timely and effective measures is unbearable, and the market mechanism from formation to operation to truly play a role is not overnight. Therefore, coal and electricity can not wait for capacity reduction, let alone wait

in other words, the bottom line of administrative regulation cannot be abandoned and relaxed until effective market competition and long-term regulatory mechanisms are improved

on the other hand, the problem of "unlicensed operation" of a large number of units with pollution (up to 10.6% of all coal-fired power units) exposed by the National Energy Administration's recent survey of generator unit licensing further reveals the arduous task of resolving the risk of excess coal-fired power capacity. We must take out the spirit of "breaking the wrists" when we have made up our minds to reduce production capacity

the inclusion of coal and electricity de capacity in the government work report for the first time means that the time window for effectively solving the problem of coal and electricity overcapacity has been opened. On the other hand, all localities are also vigorously building new coal-fired power units. In order to prevent enterprises or local governments from using the production capacity reduction policy formulation cycle to rush the construction period, the competent authorities should issue a document as soon as possible to temporarily freeze all projects under construction, and prohibit local governments from newly approving coal-fired power projects

it is imperative that relevant departments, the power industry and local governments can quickly reach a consensus on the current situation of coal and electricity overcapacity in various regions and the overcapacity scenario included in all projects under construction in 2020. In this way, it is possible for the competent authorities to issue 2020 coal-fired power scale control targets to all provinces with the bottom line of 1.1 billion kw or even with the installed capacity target of less than 1.1 billion kw as the constraint

the research group suggests that the period from 2017 to 2018 is the time node for the mid-term evaluation and revision of the 13th five year plan. Capacity reduction must be synchronized with the adjustment of planning objectives. More fundamental than the revision of planning objectives is to establish a total amount balance mechanism between national planning and provincial planning, and truly establish a binding total amount control mechanism for project approval

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